Bitcoin started the week near $74,500. By Friday morning it had broken a level that long-term holders watch more closely than almost any other: the 200-week moving average, the average weekly closing price over about four years. It has acted as a floor in past bear markets.
"Bitcoin hits 12-week low," CoinDesk reported early on Friday, as the price slipped to $67,652.[1] The question for the weekend is whether this is a brief break or the start of a move back to the year's lows.
How the week unfolded
| When | What happened |
|---|---|
| Mon 9 Nov, 07:30 ET | Bitcoin at $74,549[8] |
| Tue 10 Nov | US October CPI comes in hot; yields and the dollar rise[7] |
| Thu 12 Nov | Spot ETFs record a sixth straight day of outflows[5] |
| Fri 13 Nov, early | Low of $67,652, below the 200-week average around $68,000[1] |
| Fri 13 Nov, 08:32 ET | Producer prices come in slightly cooler than forecast; BTC bounces to $69,500[1] |
| Fri 13 Nov, 11:03 ET | Back at $68,750, down almost 4% in 24 hours[1] |
Ether fell to $1,900, its lowest since 18 August, and Solana traded below $80.[5][6]
Why bitcoin is falling
Rates and the dollar. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% on Friday, with an intraday high of 5.17%.[7] Markets now price a Fed rate rise in December as close to certain.[7] The dollar index climbed above 103.[1] When safe assets pay more than 5%, speculative assets that pay nothing become harder to justify. Gold has fallen for the same reason.
Tech stocks. Bitcoin has been trading like a high-risk tech stock. On Friday morning the Nasdaq was down 2%, AMD 9% and Nvidia 3.5%, CoinDesk reported.[1] Nvidia has been falling since Jensen Huang resigned, and it reports earnings on Tuesday.
ETF selling. US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.28 billion in net outflows in the week to 6 November, the most since late June, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $1.21 billion.[9] Outflows continued this week: Thursday's $47.7 million was the sixth day in a row, taking the six-day total to about $1.44 billion, according to Farside data cited by MLQ.[5]
Leverage being washed out. CoinGlass data reported by crypto.news shows about $1.23 billion liquidated across more than 151,000 traders in 24 hours.[6] Another CoinGlass-based count put the figure at $1.64 billion, nearly 89% of it long positions.[5] Funding rates on perpetual futures have turned negative for the first time in a month, Glassnode said, meaning traders are now paying to hold short positions.[1]
Is $60,000 next?
The levels analysts are watching:
| Level | What it is |
|---|---|
| $73,081 | 200-day moving average (resistance)[10] |
| ~$68,000 | 200-week moving average[1] |
| $64,111 | 19 August low[10] |
| $60,074 | 6 February low[10] |
| $57,737 | 2026 low, 1 July[3] |
CoinDesk's Daybook notes that a weekly momentum gauge is turning negative. If that holds at Sunday's weekly close, it "could signal a return below $60,000", a level not seen since July.[4] So the weekend matters: a weekly close back above $68,000 would make Friday's break look like a false move.
The case for a bounce rests on the funding rates. When most traders are short and paying for it, a small rally can force them to buy back, and short squeezes from oversold levels are common. Friday's jump after the producer price data showed how quickly that can happen.[1]
Other things to know
- Strategy is still buying, slowly. Michael Saylor's company bought another 1,036 bitcoin for $82 million in the week to 8 November, taking its holdings to 850,364 BTC.[12][13] Its next filing is due on Monday.
- The Binance hack. Binance now puts its losses from the 29 October hack at about $6.3 billion, far more than the first estimates we reported, and says 90% of stolen user assets are covered.[14][15] It has reopened withdrawals in stages. On 12 November the US Justice Department won court approval to seize or restrain more than $1.2 billion of the stolen funds.[14] Our original report on the Binance hack has the full timeline.
If you trade crypto this weekend
- Leverage is what gets liquidated. More than $1 billion in positions were closed out this week. If you use leverage, a position size calculator helps you set a stop and size you can live with.
- Know your drawdown. A 20% loss needs a 25% gain to get back to even; a 50% loss needs 100%. Our drawdown recovery calculator shows the maths.
- Beware of "recovery" and "bot" offers. Falling markets bring out fake trading bots and "crypto recovery" services. Before you pay for any crypto trading bot or crypto signals group, check our reviews and the regulator warnings listed on our trading bots page.
- Keep exchange risk in mind. The Binance hack is a reminder that coins held on an exchange are only as safe as that exchange.
What we don't know yet
- Where bitcoin closes the week on Sunday night, and whether the 200-week average holds on a closing basis.
- Whether ETF outflows continue next week, especially if Nvidia disappoints on Tuesday.
- When Binance will reopen all withdrawals.
See next week's key dates in our week-ahead calendar.
