Gold has spent most of 2026 as a one-way bet on falling interest rates. This week that bet broke. A hotter-than-expected US inflation report on Tuesday, a run of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and a 10-year Treasury yield back above 5% drove gold to its lowest level since October 2025.
"Fed rate hawks crush gold price," was BullionVault's headline on Thursday.[2] Here is what happened, why it happened and the levels traders are watching next week.
A $250 round trip in four days
Gold started the week strongly. It rose about $55 on Monday from Friday's close near $4,071, and closed above $4,100.[4]
Then the data turned. On Tuesday, October CPI showed prices up 0.4% on the month against 0.3% expected, with core prices up 0.3% against 0.2%.[5] By Wednesday the 10-year yield had jumped nearly 12 basis points to 5%, and the dollar index was at its highest in a year. Gold slipped below $4,000.[6]
Thursday was the worst day. Spot gold fell as low as $3,852.10, according to Kitco, and was trading at $3,876.40 in the afternoon, down $110.60 or 2.77%.[1] BullionVault put the low at $3,853, "almost $20 beneath last month's low."[2] December Comex futures settled at $3,878.40, the lowest settlement since 2 October 2025.[11]
On Friday, producer prices rose 6.5% on the year, slightly below the 6.6% expected, and gold edged back. Kitco had it at $3,897.90, up 0.57%, "testing initial resistance at $3,900."[12][3]
| Day | What happened to gold |
|---|---|
| Mon 9 Nov | Rises about $55 from Friday's close near $4,071 and closes above $4,100[4] |
| Tue 10 Nov | US CPI beats forecasts: 0.4% on the month, core 0.3%[5] |
| Wed 11 Nov | 10-year yield rises nearly 12bp to 5%; gold drops below $4,000[6] |
| Thu 12 Nov | Falls to $3,852, a 13-month low; down about 2.8% on the day[1] |
| Fri 13 Nov | PPI slightly below forecast; gold back near $3,900[3] |
Silver fared worse. It fell more than $2 an ounce on Thursday to below $50, and Comex silver is down 28.7% this year against 10.3% for gold.[2][11]
Why gold fell: rate rises are back
Gold pays no interest. When yields on safe assets like Treasuries rise, holding gold costs more in income you give up, and a stronger dollar makes it dearer for buyers outside the US. This week both moved against it.
The Fed is expected to raise rates. The Fed kept its target range at 3.75% to 4% in October, but two officials voted for a rise.[13] After Tuesday's CPI, the market is pricing a December rise as almost certain. Sources put the odds of a quarter-point move at between 85% and 94%, with the rest on half a point.[1][2]
Banks have changed their forecasts. Bank of America now expects rises in December, January and March, taking the top of the range to 4.75%.[7][14] Its economist Aditya Bhave wrote: "After Oct CPI, the Fed looks further behind the curve on inflation."[7]
Fed officials sound hawkish. Christopher Waller said in London that "ensuring that the promised hikes are implemented" matters more than their precise timing. Lorie Logan said "excess inflation is unacceptable."[2]
The dollar is strong. The dollar index rose above 103 on Friday, its highest since April 2025.[12][2]
What analysts expect
Goldman Sachs cut its end-2026 gold forecast to $4,150 an ounce from $4,650 on 5 November, and its end-2027 target to $4,800 from $5,400, citing a hawkish Fed.[8] That still implies a recovery from here, but more slowly than the bank expected two months ago.
The demand picture is mixed:
- Central banks are still buying. The World Gold Council estimates net central bank purchases of 321 tonnes in the third quarter, up 42% on a year earlier.[15]
- ETF buyers are split. Gold ETFs worldwide took in $2.7 billion in October, a fourth monthly gain, led by Europe. North American funds saw outflows of $512 million.[10]
The levels traders are watching
| Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| $4,155 | 50-day moving average[4] |
| $3,990–4,025 | 20-day moving average and the round $4,000[4] |
| $3,900 | Friday's resistance[3] |
| $3,850 | This week's low[1] |
| $3,720 | Next support[4] |
| $3,600 | Lower edge of the falling channel[4] |
FXStreet notes gold is in a falling channel, with the daily RSI around 40: weak, but not yet oversold.[4]
What could move gold next week
- Tuesday 17 November: US retail sales and industrial production at 13:30 UK time.[4]
- Wednesday 18 November: minutes of the Fed's October meeting at 19:00 UK time. FXStreet points out they may be "outdated", because the meeting came before the October inflation data.[4]
- Nvidia earnings on Tuesday night. A big sell-off in tech could push some money back into gold as a haven, or force leveraged traders to sell gold to cover losses elsewhere.
Our week-ahead calendar has every release with UK times.
If you trade gold
Gold fell more than $110 in a single session on Thursday. On a standard lot of 100 ounces, a $100 move is $10,000. Some practical points:
- Work out your risk before you enter. Use our position size calculator and pip value calculator. Brokers define a gold "pip" differently, which our glossary entry on XAU/USD explains.
- Check your margin. Brokers often raise margin on gold during fast markets. The margin calculator shows what a position ties up at your leverage.
- Avoid trading the release itself. Spreads on XAU/USD widen sharply at 13:30 UK time on US data days.
- Be careful with signal groups. After a week like this, many Telegram gold channels show only the winners. Our gold signals rankings show which providers publish a record you can check, and our gold signal apps list covers free tools.
What we don't know yet
- Whether the Fed raises rates by a quarter or a half point in December, or whether a weak data run changes the picture.
- Whether central bank buying will keep its pace at lower prices. The WGC's next quarterly report is not due until early next year.
- How far North American ETF selling has to run.
We will update this report if gold breaks below $3,850 or the Fed outlook changes. See the latest on our news page.
