Nvidia's earnings used to be about one question: how much more AI demand is there? On Tuesday there will be several more. Who runs the company? Has the scandal around its founder changed anything for customers or regulators? And will the interim leadership give guidance with the same confidence?
If you need the background, our report on Jensen Huang's resignation covers what happened and what is still unconfirmed. This preview covers what to watch on Tuesday.
When, and who is on the call
Nvidia set the date on 28 October and confirmed it would keep it in the release announcing Huang's departure.[1][2]
| Time | |
|---|---|
| Results and CFO commentary | About 1:20 p.m. PT / 4:20 p.m. ET / 21:20 UK |
| Conference call | 2 p.m. PT / 5 p.m. ET / 22:00 UK |
| Quarter covered | Three months to 25 October 2026 |
The release that set the date did not name a host for the call. Kress is now interim CEO as well as CFO, and TipRanks reports she is "expected to address the leadership transition".[3] Nvidia will also hold an all-hands meeting for staff on 18 November at 9 a.m. PT.[9]
The numbers
Here is what Nvidia said to expect in August, against what it reported last quarter and what analysts forecast now:
| Q2 actual | Nvidia's Q3 guidance | Analyst consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $96.2 billion[4] | $108.0 billion ± 2%[4] | $109.2–109.4 billion[5][6] |
| Gross margin | 75.0%[4] | 74.0% ± 0.5 pts[4] | |
| Earnings per share | $2.22 (non-GAAP)[4] | $2.47[5] | |
| Data centre revenue | $89.0 billion[4] |
The top of Nvidia's range is about $110.2 billion. Nvidia has often beaten the top of its own range in recent years, and the market has come to expect it. A result in the middle of the range would be read as a miss, scandal or not.
Nvidia's outlook assumed no data-centre compute revenue from China.[4] That makes China upside, not risk, in the reported numbers, but it is where the politics now sits.
Five things to listen for
1. Fourth-quarter guidance. This matters more than the quarter just gone. Keep an eye on the revenue midpoint, and on whether gross margin holds near 74% as the next-generation Rubin chips ramp up.
2. Customer orders since the resignation. Any hint that cloud customers or AI labs have paused orders while the leadership is unsettled would hurt. Barclays has flagged "structural key man risk" in Nvidia's financing deals with customers, according to TipRanks.[3]
3. The CEO search. The board says it is looking at internal and external candidates.[2] The Financial Times reported that Nvidia approached Arm CEO Rene Haas. Reuters could not verify the report, Arm declined to comment and Nvidia did not respond.[10] Analysts have named insiders such as Ian Buck as candidates too.[10][7] Kress is unlikely to name anyone on Tuesday, but anything on timing will be closely followed. HSBC thinks "uncertainties will prevail until a permanent succession plan is laid out."[8]
4. China and export licences. Nvidia said in its last quarterly filing that the US had granted licences to ship small amounts of H200 chips to some Chinese customers, but "to date, we have not generated any revenue under the H200 licensing program."[11] Megaspeed, the Singapore company at the centre of the Huang story, has bought more than $4.8 billion of Nvidia AI chips over two years and is under US investigation.[12] Questions about write-downs on China inventory are likely.
5. Supply. Analysts at KeyBanc say the Rubin ramp is constrained by supply of HBM4 memory from SK Hynix.[3] Supply limits, not demand, may set the ceiling on next quarter's revenue.
What Nvidia's customers are spending
Nvidia's revenue depends on a handful of very large buyers. Their latest guidance, from results at the end of October:
| Company | 2026 capital spending plan |
|---|---|
| Amazon | About $220 billion, unchanged[13] |
| Alphabet | $195–205 billion, unchanged, with a "significant increase" expected in 2027[14] |
| Microsoft | Cut to $170 billion from $175 billion, citing delays in chips from other suppliers[15] |
| Meta | Narrowed to $135–145 billion[16] |
Spending is still at record levels. Microsoft's small cut was blamed on supply, not demand.
How the stock is set up
NVDA closed at a record $239.24 on 6 October. It closed at $173.73 on 11 November, opened more than 13% lower on the morning of the resignation and ended that day down 4.3%.[7] It fell again on Friday as HSBC downgraded it, and was trading near $163 according to Investopedia.[8][6]
Analysts have rushed to cut targets:
| Firm | Change |
|---|---|
| HSBC | Downgraded to hold from buy; target $170 from $365[8] |
| Baird | Downgraded to neutral; target $200 from $500[7] |
| Stifel | Kept buy; target $205 from $315[7] |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Kept overweight; target $250 from $350[7] |
Truist, Evercore ISI, William Blair, Oppenheimer and Bernstein also lowered their ratings this week, CNBC reports.[8]
Options pricing suggests a move of about 8% by the end of next week, according to Investopedia, or about 9.7% according to TipRanks.[6][3] From around $163, an 8% move either way is roughly $150 to $176.
Outside the numbers
- A shareholder lawsuit. A class action was filed in San Jose on 9 November on behalf of investors who bought between 9 October 2025 and 8 November 2026.[17]
- Congress. Senate Banking Committee chair Tim Scott has asked for hearings on 3 December (Huang) and 10 December (Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick).[12]
If you trade NVDA through earnings
- Expect a gap. The results land after the close, so the first price you can trade at may be far from Tuesday's close. A stop loss does not protect you from a gap; it fills at the next available price.
- Size for an 8% to 10% move. That is what the options market expects. Work out what that would cost you with our position size calculator, and check the margin your broker requires with the margin calculator.
- Options are expensive. Implied volatility is high going into a scandal plus an earnings date. Buying options means paying for that uncertainty.
- Index traders are exposed too. Nvidia is one of the biggest weights in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. If you trade index futures on a futures prop firm account, check its news-trading rules before Tuesday.
- Ignore "guaranteed" calls. Stock tip channels will be busy this week. Our guide to trading bots for stocks explains what automated tools can and can't do.
For everything else happening next week, including the Fed minutes on Wednesday, see our week-ahead calendar.
